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MODEL ACCURACY · WC2026 BACKTEST
50%on committed picks
5,447 committed predictions· 17 competitions· Updated 27 Jul 2026
What "committed picks" means
When confidence is too low — closely-matched teams, limited head-to-head data — Ivy abstains rather than guessing. The accuracy figure above covers only predictions where the model committed to a side. This means you see real signal, not cherry-picked results. Abstention rate: 0% of fixtures.
CALIBRATION CURVE
Predicted →↑ Actual
When Ivy says 70%, it wins ~70% of the time. The chart shows how predicted probability vs actual outcome lines up across 5,447 international fixtures. The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration; the yellow line is Ivy.
ACCURACY BY COMPETITION · MVP SCOPE
| Competition | Accuracy | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| World Cup - Qualification Europe | 57% | 740 |
| UEFA Nations League | 47% | 662 |
| World Cup - Qualification Asia | 53% | 594 |
| World Cup - Qualification Africa | 46% | 534 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | 42% | 457 |
| Euro Championship | 53% | 415 |
| Africa Cup of Nations | 42% | 386 |
| World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF | 52% | 284 |
| World Cup - Qualification South America | 47% | 264 |
| Euro Championship - Qualification | 58% | 239 |
| World Cup | 44% | 232 |
| Asian Cup - Qualification | 56% | 206 |
| CONCACAF Gold Cup | 51% | 149 |
| Copa America | 47% | 118 |
| Asian Cup | 56% | 102 |
| World Cup - Qualification Oceania | 49% | 55 |
| World Cup - Qualification Intercontinental Play-offs | 30% | 10 |
| Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 — coming next. | ||
METHODOLOGY
- Poisson goal distribution with Dixon-Coles low-score correction
- ELO ratings replayed chronologically with time-weighted recency
- FIFA rank blend applied at 60% weight for international teams
- 25% market odds blend when available (WC fixtures only)
- Abstains when predicted probability gap is below the confidence threshold